Analyzing SPY and other popular stocks heading into Q2 2025

From a purely chartist perspective and trying to make sense of everything this past week economically, I actually think there are more reasons to be bullish than bearish right now if the market is forward-thinking.

Maybe it’s because of St. Patrick’s Day last week and the Irish in me, but I have to say I am still not a full-on bear as I wrote last week, and I am looking for green going into Q2.

SPY technical analysis and other factors:

SPY sitting above the 10DMA and rejected from the 200DMA last week on the daily chart

SPY BULLISH:

  • Held 10DMA on daily chart 
  • NVDA held its 10DMA on daily as market leader 
  • More bullish volume although lower than volume 
  • Held $557 the last 5 sessions 
  • Closed above 50DMA on weekly 
  • Whale trades intraday bullish volume >1M shares traded per minute green bars 
  • Spinning top green weekly candle 
  • Has a steady bullish trend from the $549 local bottom

I remain bullish on these notions:

  • NVDA holds its 10DMA + passes its 50DMA
  • SPY surpasses the 200DMA and holds within the next 2-3 trading sessions + closing ABOVE. 
  • 10DMA comes up to 200 again 
  • Bitcoin holding 83K this weekend (or 81k)
  • Bitcoin passing and holding 86k
  • contrarian trade as market possibly processed tariffs and now trading on posed tariffs going away in future?

I remain bearish on these notions:

  • Trump Administration and anything Trump says or does unexpectedly and rash 
  • More wars breaking out 
  • SPY breaking $555-550 level 
  • Bitcoin breaking $83-81k level
  • SPY rejecting the 200DMA early again next week and not closing above by Tuesday or mid-week 

How I see it:

  • Big test next week can SPY break the 200DMA
  • Bitcoin in a peculiar position with a fight back above its respective 200DMA to see its 50DMA again (and hold the 10DMA)

Analyzing Other Popular Stocks

SPY is of course the leader of the pack, but I like to keep an eye on other stocks individually for comparison. Listed below are some popular names along with their 10/50/200 DMA and 3/21 close price (listed in parenthesis). A lot of stocks closed right above their 10DMA on Friday showing signs of a reversal with bullish daily volume; looking closer at NVDA the market leader it did not break my bearish indicator last week, however it also didn’t break my bullish indicator, so who’s to say?

HIMS – 33/38/25 (34.75)

All hail the almighty HIMS stock! No, but seriously, $10 to $72 is crazy. Now looking to close above $38 and hold $34. Still has a heavy short interest almost at 30% and a 100/100 squeeze score according to S3 Partners.

PLTR – 83/88/54 (90.96)

After an insane run $25-125, PLTR reclaimed its 10 + 50DMA on Friday. Next week looks to hold the 50 while breaking a previous resistance of about $100.

NVDA – 115/126/127 (117.70)

NVDA bears wanted sub $100, but just like that one song said, you can’t always get what you want. Plus: $150-104 was an amazing short. Now I’m looking for NVDA to reclaim $120-125 bullish.

OXY – 47/48/52 (47.94)

OXY one of the least exciting stocks over the last year down 23% (sorry, Warren Buffett), I’m still looking for a move to the $60s. The daily reclaimed the 10 just like many other stocks, so I will *sigh* wait for OXY to get back over $48-49 yet again.

PYPL – 68/78/75 (70.19)

I’m sorry for putting PayPal on my 2025 watchlist. No, truly, I’m sick to my stomach about the price action YTD after a rather bullish end to 2024. I wanted so much more for you, PayPal. Ideally this gets back to $75 soon or I might lose all hope.

TSLA – 237/335/284 (248.71)

The Tesla bears have been loud lately. You know what to do. Looking for a close back above $284 to get bullish again but the first sign would be a close above previous resistance $260. Leaning bullish.

HOOD – 39/48/32 (44.36)

HOOD is a monster making crazy moves the last year hitting a 1 year high in the 60s. Now after the recent tumble it’s found support at the 10 looking to reclaim the 50s. Watch below $40.

Of course, I have no actual clue what will happen and will likely be embarrassed soon by this post, but I am leaning back bullish. And regardless where the market decides where it wants to go, wishing you all the best with your trades entering the second quarter of 2025.